By Wang Min

王敏

General James J. Mingus, Vice Chief of Staff of the US Army, recently announced plans to increase the number of Patriot missile battalions from 15 to 19 to counter the growing global threats. However, analysts argue that this ambitious expansion plan does not reflect strength but rather serves as a mirror reflecting the hegemonic anxiety of the US in the context of the evolving global security landscape.

近日，美國陸軍副參謀長詹姆斯·明格斯宣布，美軍計(jì)劃將“愛國者”導(dǎo)彈營數(shù)量從15個(gè)增至19個(gè)，以應(yīng)對(duì)與日俱增的全球威脅。然而，在分析人士看來，這一雄心勃勃的擴(kuò)編計(jì)劃，并非實(shí)力的彰顯，反而像一面鏡子，映射出美國在全球安全態(tài)勢(shì)持續(xù)變化下的霸權(quán)焦慮。

The US Army has 15 Patriot missile battalions currently, 14 of which are fully combat-ready. To maintain its global hegemonic system, the US has deployed these battalions across multiple hotspots, with three in the so-called Indo-Pacific, one under the US European Command, one under the US Central Command, and the remaining on a rotational deployment. The operational deployment pressure on the troops is immense, as James J. Mingus acknowledged that the Patriot units have become the most stressed element in the US Army.

目前，美軍擁有15個(gè)“愛國者”導(dǎo)彈營，實(shí)際具備完整戰(zhàn)備狀態(tài)的14個(gè)。為了維系全球霸權(quán)體系，美國將“愛國者”導(dǎo)彈營分散部署至全球多個(gè)熱點(diǎn)地區(qū)：3個(gè)營駐扎印太戰(zhàn)區(qū)，1個(gè)營歸屬歐洲司令部，1個(gè)營歸屬中央司令部，其余部隊(duì)則長期處于輪換部署狀態(tài)，部隊(duì)作戰(zhàn)部署壓力極為繁重，正如詹姆斯·明格斯承認(rèn)的那樣：“‘愛國者’部隊(duì)已成為美國陸軍壓力最大的部隊(duì)?！?/p>

This series of deployments has not alleviated regional challenges; instead, it has amplified the limitations of the Patriot system's combat effectiveness. In the Middle East, to cope with the tension between Israel and Iran, the US military implemented a "rob Peter to pay Paul" redeployment earlier this year by withdrawing a battalion from the Indo-Pacific Command zone to reassign it to Central Command's area, which exposes the fragility of its global intervention strategy. In June, when Iran launched a missile attack on the US military's Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the Patriot system fired a large number of interceptors in a short time (each worth $4 million), setting the record for the largest salvo interception of this weapon system. While this demonstrated some tactical value, it also exposed the high economic cost and limited sustainability of the system under saturation attacks.

這一系列部署，并未緩解地區(qū)挑戰(zhàn)沖擊，從一定程度上還放大了“愛國者”系統(tǒng)戰(zhàn)力的短板。在中東，為應(yīng)對(duì)伊以緊張局勢(shì)，美軍年初實(shí)施“拆東墻補(bǔ)西墻式調(diào)配”，不得不從印太戰(zhàn)區(qū)抽調(diào)一個(gè)營移防中央司令部轄區(qū)，暴露出其全球干預(yù)戰(zhàn)略的脆弱性。今年6月伊朗導(dǎo)彈襲擊美軍駐卡塔爾烏代德空軍基地時(shí)，“愛國者”系統(tǒng)短時(shí)間內(nèi)發(fā)射大量攔截彈（每枚價(jià)值400萬美元），創(chuàng)造了該型武器最大規(guī)模齊射攔截紀(jì)錄。這雖展現(xiàn)了一定的戰(zhàn)術(shù)價(jià)值，但也暴露了其在飽和攻擊下的高昂經(jīng)濟(jì)代價(jià)與數(shù)量上的有限持續(xù)性。

On the battlefield in Ukraine, the predicament of the Patriot system presents itself in another way. As a key component of Ukraine's air defense network, on one hand, the Patriot system struggles to effectively counter Russia's Iskander-M (SS-26) and Oreshnik missiles, with its performance myth nearing collapse; on the other hand, to maintain their own stockpile, the US and its allies are unable to provide additional launchers and interceptors. This tight-fisted scenario also exposes the vulnerability of Western support for Ukraine.

在烏克蘭戰(zhàn)場(chǎng)，“愛國者”系統(tǒng)的困境則以另一種方式呈現(xiàn)。作為烏防空網(wǎng)的重要組成部分，一方面，“愛國者”系統(tǒng)難以有效應(yīng)對(duì)俄羅斯“伊斯坎德爾-M”“榛樹”導(dǎo)彈，其性能神話瀕臨破產(chǎn)；另一方面，為保證自身庫存，美國與盟友無力提供更多發(fā)射裝置與攔截彈。這種捉襟見肘的場(chǎng)景，也暴露了西方對(duì)烏支援的脆弱性。

It is noteworthy that the Patriot expansion plan includes the permanent stationing of a missile battalion on Guam, which will work in coordination with the land-based Aegis missile defense systems to build a defense hub in the western Pacific. However, given Guam's limited land area and isolated geographical position, this "point-based" defense deployment is not only fails to create an effective defense system but may also trigger a new round of regional arms race.

令人關(guān)注的是，“愛國者”擴(kuò)編計(jì)劃中專門設(shè)置了一個(gè)導(dǎo)彈營永久駐防關(guān)島，與陸基“宙斯盾”系統(tǒng)協(xié)同構(gòu)建西太防御樞紐。但鑒于關(guān)島有限的陸地面積與孤立的地理位置，這種“以點(diǎn)制面”的防御部署，不僅難以構(gòu)建有效防御體系，更可能引發(fā)新一輪區(qū)域性軍備競賽。

To maintain global military hegemony, the US military is seeking a significant increase in its inventory of Patriot interceptors. The Pentagon's 2026 budget documents reveal that the procurement of Patriot interceptors will surge from an initial 3,376 to 13,773. However, producing such a large number of missiles is no easy task. According to reports, Lockheed Martin, the manufacturer of the Patriot system, is projected to produce more than 600 Patriot interceptors this year, a production milestone for the company. However, this is a mere drop in the ocean compared to the ever-growing demand gap.

為維護(hù)全球軍事霸權(quán)，美軍正尋求大幅增加“愛國者”攔截導(dǎo)彈的庫存。五角大樓2026年預(yù)算文件顯示，“愛國者”攔截彈的采購數(shù)量從最初的3376枚激增至13773枚。但生產(chǎn)足夠數(shù)量的導(dǎo)彈絕非易事。據(jù)報(bào)道，負(fù)責(zé)生產(chǎn)的洛克希德·馬丁公司今年有望生產(chǎn)超過600枚“愛國者”攔截導(dǎo)彈，這是該公司首次達(dá)到這一產(chǎn)能水平，但相對(duì)于不斷擴(kuò)大的需求缺口可謂杯水車薪。

The Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Middle Eastern crises have exposed the growing fatigue of America's long-relied traditional defense systems in real combat scenarios. What was meant to demonstrate US military strength, the Patriot system, has now become a footnote to the US global strategic retrenchment. The most pressured Patriot forces are precisely bearing the brunt of the pressure emanating from the decline of US global hegemony. Analysts point out that an expanded Patriot force cannot support the Cold War-minded "global missile defense dome" envisioned by the US.

在經(jīng)歷了俄烏沖突和中東沖突之后，可以看出，美國長期以來賴以自詡的傳統(tǒng)防御體系在實(shí)戰(zhàn)中盡顯疲態(tài)。本應(yīng)彰顯美軍實(shí)力的“愛國者”系統(tǒng)，如今卻成為美國全球戰(zhàn)略收縮的注腳。壓力最大的“愛國者”部隊(duì)，承受的恰恰是由美全球霸權(quán)衰落傳導(dǎo)而來的壓力。分析人士指出，一支擴(kuò)編的“愛國者”部隊(duì)，支撐不起充滿冷戰(zhàn)思維的美式“全球防空穹頂”。