By Ling Yunzhi

凌云志

Recently, the Japan Self-Defense Force (JSDF) took part for the first time as an official participant in joint military exercises under the AUKUS framework involving the US, the UK, and Australia. Japan's involvement in the AUKUS exercises is essentially aimed at breaking free from the constraints of the post-war framework, seizing the high ground in military technology, and ultimately advancing its strategic shift from an exclusively defense-oriented policy to that of a normal country. This development warrants strong vigilance of the international community.

近日，日本自衛(wèi)隊(duì)首次以正式成員身份參與美英澳“奧庫(kù)斯”（AUKUS）框架下的聯(lián)合軍事演習(xí)。此次日本參與“奧庫(kù)斯”聯(lián)合軍演，核心目標(biāo)在于突破戰(zhàn)后體制束縛、搶占軍事科技制高點(diǎn)，最終實(shí)現(xiàn)從“專守防衛(wèi)”向“正常國(guó)家”戰(zhàn)略轉(zhuǎn)型，值得國(guó)際社會(huì)高度警惕。

From Peripheral Alignment to Deep Binding

從“邊緣靠攏”到“深度綁定”

Since the establishment of AUKUS in September 2021, Japan has steadily infiltrated the mechanism in the capacity of a quasi-member. In particular, it demonstrates keen interest, particularly in areas such as the proliferation of nuclear-powered submarine technology and the sharing of advanced defense technologies. In April 2024, Japan announced its participation in the AUKUS Pillar 2 activities, which include cooperation on hypersonic capabilities and anti-submarine warfare. Japan's recent participation in the AUKUS joint military exercise as a formal member for the first time marks a shift in its role from a mere observer to an active participant and signals the commencement of substantive cooperation between the two sides.

自“奧庫(kù)斯”2021年9月成立以來，日本以“準(zhǔn)成員”身份持續(xù)向該機(jī)制滲透，尤其在核動(dòng)力潛艇技術(shù)擴(kuò)散、先進(jìn)防務(wù)科技共享等領(lǐng)域展現(xiàn)出強(qiáng)烈興趣。2024年4月，日本宣布參與“奧庫(kù)斯”的高超音速能力、反潛等“第二支柱”項(xiàng)目合作研發(fā)。此次日本首次以正式成員身份參與“奧庫(kù)斯”聯(lián)合軍演，標(biāo)志著其已完成了從“觀察者”到“參與者”的身份躍升，雙方關(guān)系也由此進(jìn)入到實(shí)質(zhì)性合作階段。

During the exercise, the JSDF participated in the core task of testing acoustic communication technology between surface vessels and UUVs. As the most groundbreaking part of the entire exercise, the task signified Japan's deepening involvement in AUKUS's core military technology development framework.

在此次演習(xí)中，日本自衛(wèi)隊(duì)參加了船舶與無(wú)人潛航器間的聲波通信技術(shù)測(cè)試這一核心任務(wù)，堪稱整場(chǎng)演習(xí)最具突破性的環(huán)節(jié)，也標(biāo)志著日本將深度介入“奧庫(kù)斯”的核心軍事技術(shù)研發(fā)體系。

It is worth noting that Japan also took advantage of the multinational Talisman Sabre exercise hosted by Australia to fully demonstrate its cross-domain cooperative combat abilities. By jointly deploying its F-35A stealth fighter jets alongside the Royal Australian Air Force's C-27J Spartan transport aircraft, Japan achieved seamless integration between airborne delivery and precision strike operations. This not only validated Japan's systematized approach to the employment of air power but also served as preparation for its future participation in high-end warfare under the AUKUS framework.

值得注意的是，日本還借勢(shì)澳大利亞主辦的“護(hù)身軍刀”多國(guó)聯(lián)演，展開跨域協(xié)同作戰(zhàn)能力的全方位展示，通過將其F-35A隱身戰(zhàn)機(jī)與澳軍C-27J運(yùn)輸機(jī)聯(lián)合部署，實(shí)現(xiàn)了空運(yùn)投送與精確打擊的無(wú)縫銜接。不僅驗(yàn)證了日本在空中力量運(yùn)用上的體系化思維，也為其未來參與“奧庫(kù)斯”框架下的高端戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)做準(zhǔn)備。

Attempt to Transition from Technological Collaboration to Political Breakthrough

日本企圖從“技術(shù)合作”到“政治突圍”

First, by participating in multilateral cooperation under the AUKUS framework, Japan gains entry into cutting-edge technological domains such as artificial intelligence, quantum communications, and UUV swarming. While these technologies are outwardly promoted as defensive applications, they in fact carry significant offensive potential. This strategy of riding the tide enables Japan to pursue its goal of loosening military restrictions and breaking through the constraints imposed by Japan's pacifist constitution without formally amending it.

首先，日本通過參加“奧庫(kù)斯”框架下的多邊合作，可以涉足人工智能、量子通信、無(wú)人潛航器集群等前沿技術(shù)領(lǐng)域。這些技術(shù)雖表面標(biāo)榜為“防御性應(yīng)用”，實(shí)則具備顯著的進(jìn)攻潛能。這種“借船出海”的策略，使日本能夠在不修改憲法文本的前提下，實(shí)現(xiàn)謀求軍事松綁、突破和平憲法限制的戰(zhàn)略訴求。

Second, Japan views its participation in AUKUS as a critical pathway toward becoming a normal state. During the exercises, Japan deliberately emphasized a dual-track approach, which focuses on both targeted technological breakthroughs and participation in large-scale multinational exercises. It is aimed at demonstrating its comprehensive capability to align with AUKUS's strategic objectives, thereby laying the groundwork for building a secondary power center with Japan at the core. It also reflects Japan's staking its future on the realist logic that power determines status.

其次，日本將參與“奧庫(kù)斯”作為實(shí)現(xiàn)“正常國(guó)家化”的重要途徑。日本在演習(xí)中刻意強(qiáng)調(diào)“雙線聯(lián)動(dòng)”模式——既專注專項(xiàng)技術(shù)突破，又參與大規(guī)模多國(guó)聯(lián)演，正是為了證明自身具備承接“奧庫(kù)斯”戰(zhàn)略意圖的綜合能力，繼而以此構(gòu)建以己為中心的次級(jí)權(quán)力中心，也表明日本已將賭注押在“實(shí)力決定地位”的現(xiàn)實(shí)邏輯之上。

Regional Security Faces Potential Crises and Multiple Challenges

地區(qū)安全面臨潛在危機(jī)與多重挑戰(zhàn)

First, Japan's participation in the AUKUS exercises is highly likely to trigger a new round of arms race. The core component of Japan's involvement, the testing of acoustic communication technologies between surface vessels and UUVs, points directly to a revolutionary shift in future underwater warfare, which is expected to set off a chain reaction of regional military competition.

首先，日本此次參與“奧庫(kù)斯”演習(xí)，極有可能引發(fā)新一輪軍備競(jìng)賽。此次日本參與演習(xí)的核心科目——船舶與無(wú)人潛航器之間的聲波通信技術(shù)測(cè)試，直接指向未來水下作戰(zhàn)模式的革命性變革，勢(shì)必會(huì)引發(fā)地區(qū)軍備競(jìng)賽的連鎖反應(yīng)。

Second, Japan's engagement in AUKUS exercises brings with it an unprecedented risk of nuclear proliferation. The fact that Japan has gained access to data interfaces related to nuclear propulsion systems through the exercises exposes critical loopholes in existing technology control regimes. This form of technical brinkmanship not only undermines the non-proliferation regime established under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), setting a dangerous precedent for East Asian countries, but also, given Japan's status as the only country to have suffered nuclear attacks, risks reigniting historical trauma among its neighbors. Such nuclear-related moves may, in turn, intensify regional states' motivations to pursue nuclear capabilities, thereby pushing nuclear proliferation in the region toward a perilous tipping point.

其次，日本參與“奧庫(kù)斯”演習(xí)將帶來前所未有的核擴(kuò)散風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。但日本通過演習(xí)獲得核動(dòng)力系統(tǒng)數(shù)據(jù)接口權(quán)限的事實(shí)，已揭開了技術(shù)管控的漏洞。這種“技術(shù)擦邊球”行為一方面打破了《不擴(kuò)散核武器條約》的防擴(kuò)散機(jī)制，為東亞國(guó)家樹立了危險(xiǎn)先例；另一方面，日本作為唯一遭受過核打擊的國(guó)家，其涉核舉動(dòng)會(huì)引發(fā)周邊國(guó)家的歷史創(chuàng)傷記憶，刺激后者獲取核武器的意愿，從而將地區(qū)核擴(kuò)散推向更為危險(xiǎn)的臨界點(diǎn)。

Finally, Japan's participation in AUKUS exercises threatens to inflict unprecedented damage on the already fragile foundation of regional security trust. By transforming technological cooperation under AUKUS into a de facto military alliance and converting ostensibly defensive drills into offensive rehearsals, Japan is prompting neighboring countries to re-evaluate their own security strategies. This could ultimately unravel existing multilateral security frameworks, force regional actors into zero-sum choices amid major-power rivalry, and push the Asia-Pacific security landscape toward a bloc confrontation reminiscent of a new Cold War.

最后，日本參與 “奧庫(kù)斯”演習(xí)將使原本脆弱的地區(qū)安全互信基礎(chǔ)遭受前所未有的沖擊。日本通過“奧庫(kù)斯”體系將技術(shù)合作異化為軍事同盟，把防御性演習(xí)演變?yōu)檫M(jìn)攻性預(yù)演，導(dǎo)致地區(qū)國(guó)家將重新審視自身安全戰(zhàn)略。最終可能瓦解現(xiàn)有的多邊安全框架，迫使各國(guó)在大國(guó)博弈中做出非此即彼的艱難選擇，從而將亞太安全格局推向“新冷戰(zhàn)”式的陣營(yíng)對(duì)立。

Editor's Note: Originally published on thepaper.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.